Logistic regression is a data mining technique that is used in banks to determine various things like the risk factor associated with a person. If a customer is above a certain risk limit than services like overdrafts are not extended to the customer. Similar data mining can be done by any marketing company to find out which of their customers are going to pay or are capable of paying for their products - for example for a gaming company that would be paying for playing the game. A combination of a number of variables could lead to giving out this important information – age, sex, location, salary, education etc. Each variable would have a different weight associated with it, where higher weights (coefficients) would represent more important variables. A part of the historical data can be used as training data to get a good estimate of the coefficients and the results can be tested against the rest of the historical data to check the accuracy.
When the results are accurate enough, logistic regression could be used to determine the probability of a customer paying for virtual currency in the next one day/one week/one month etc. Customers could also be segmented according to their paying probability and paying capacity so good decisions could be made on spending on acquisition of these customers. This can also lead to saving a lot of money by cutting down on paying for acquisition of non-paying customers. Similar technique can be used to find influencers and influential people and attract them to play games thereby helping games go viral. The process is simple and saves a lot of money by recognizing which customers are capable of paying and targeting all your campaigns to attract this user base. A lot of segmentation is possible using this simple method of data mining.
Example: Suppose the variables that are most important in finding paying are – Age, Education and Salary.
β0 = 1 (the intercept)
β1 = 2
β2 = 3
β3 = 4
x1 = Age
x2 = Education in years above high school
x3 = Salary in dollars above 50000
The model can hence be expressed as:
Probability of conversion to paying customer = 1/1+e^-z (Z= 1 + 2 x1 +3 x2+ 4x3 )
With increase in age, education and salary the probability of paying increases.
So, for a customer who is 24 years of age, has studied 7 years after high school and has a salary of 100,000 dollars the probability of conversion to paying customer would be 1/1+e^-z (Z= 1 + 2*10 +3 *7+ 4*50000 )
After understanding the segmentation of the customers and the probability of conversion to a paying customer, informed spending decisions can be made. Advertisements can be targeted to only to the segment desired and games can be designed to cater to the paying audience.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Marketing Analytics - The Mobile Advertising Models & Ad Networks
I have been reading a lot about marketing and the gaming industry lately and feel its something really cool to blog about. Anyone into marketing or into analytics will find the next few posts quite interesting. Well, at least that is what I hope for!
Every mobile company needs to advertise. Now there are number of ways of doing this. Either have direct partnerships with other companies which own apps, go to Google or Apple or let someone else decide how to get those ad impressions for you.
There are number of ways to advertise - Display CPM, CPC, CPA/CPI, Search CPC are all online advertising models. Each of them varies in their cost structure.
1. Display CPM: CPM is an acronym for Cost per Mille or Cost per thousand. In such a setup the cost of the advertisement is calculated for 1000 page impressions each time the advertisement is displayed. A company which decides to use CPM advertisements will be quoted a guaranteed number of page impressions for an advertisement. The cost structure will be based on the decided number. The cost structure is independent of the visitors clicking the advertisement. Publishers get a share of the revenue.
2. CPC: CPC stands for Cost per Click. In this advertisement model, the publisher is paid each time a visitor clicks on the displayed advertisement. It does not matter what the visitor does after clicking on the ads. These types of ads are monitored to ensure that the publisher does not artificially inflate numbers.
3. CPA: CPA stands for Cost per Acquisition or Action. In this model, the advertiser pays when a certain action criteria is met after a visitor arrives at the advertiser’s link. For, a gaming company this criteria could be a visitor clicking on a link to reach the iTunes store and downloading their game. This model tends to be costly because of the action guarantee associated with it.
4. Search CPC: In this type of mode, advertisers pay a fee for displaying their content shown on search engines. Sometimes the natural results and the paid search results can be easily differentiated by visitors due to the display structure. An advertiser pays only if a customer clicks on an advertisement. The cost associated is higher than content CPC.
CPM is useful for a company that is already established or is in the early stage wherein they have a huge market and want to ensure market visibility. CPC ensures that a visitor at least looks at an advertiser’s link and this would be useful for a gaming company if the visitor is browsing using a mobile device. However, in my opinion the most important of these models for app companies would be Cost per Action since this could ensure that a visitor clicks on a link and downloads the app. As the number of people that download the app increases, the app ranking rises on iTunes and Android Market Search, the number of reviews increase helping the app(a game maybe?) go viral. The higher the k-factor the more successful the adoption of this model would be.
Now how do you get your ad in there??
The two leading mobile ad networks(in my opinion) for iOS would be AdMob and iAd.
1. AdMob: According to AdMob’s website 1,107,009,356,188 global impressions have been served by AdMob. Google AdMob offers a variety of services like Text Ads, Ads with Offers, Click to download etc. They are very well established and these services gel very well with other services offered by Google like AdWords Reporting and Google Analytics. Google AdMob is doing very well and has worked with a number of big brands. One disadvantage Google has is that its competitor Apple owns the iOS platform which might cause problems in the future. But its Google!
2. iAd: iAd is owned by Apple which makes it a good choice for user acquisition on iOS. According to Apple, iAd has installed more than 15 billion applications, it’s audience has activated over 225 million iTunes accounts, spends, on average, 73 minutes per day using apps and engages with iAd ads for an average of 60 seconds per visit. Apple vs Google - Its tough to answer that one!
Both iAd and AdMob have had complains from users and no one network seems significantly better than the other. The spend would be evaluated by looking at the Clicks, Fill Rate, Impressions, eCPM (Effective Cost Per Thousand) and Revenue. In my opinion, the best way to advertise would be to implement “mobclix” or something similar wherein multiple ad networks could be used.
Every mobile company needs to advertise. Now there are number of ways of doing this. Either have direct partnerships with other companies which own apps, go to Google or Apple or let someone else decide how to get those ad impressions for you.
There are number of ways to advertise - Display CPM, CPC, CPA/CPI, Search CPC are all online advertising models. Each of them varies in their cost structure.
1. Display CPM: CPM is an acronym for Cost per Mille or Cost per thousand. In such a setup the cost of the advertisement is calculated for 1000 page impressions each time the advertisement is displayed. A company which decides to use CPM advertisements will be quoted a guaranteed number of page impressions for an advertisement. The cost structure will be based on the decided number. The cost structure is independent of the visitors clicking the advertisement. Publishers get a share of the revenue.
2. CPC: CPC stands for Cost per Click. In this advertisement model, the publisher is paid each time a visitor clicks on the displayed advertisement. It does not matter what the visitor does after clicking on the ads. These types of ads are monitored to ensure that the publisher does not artificially inflate numbers.
3. CPA: CPA stands for Cost per Acquisition or Action. In this model, the advertiser pays when a certain action criteria is met after a visitor arrives at the advertiser’s link. For, a gaming company this criteria could be a visitor clicking on a link to reach the iTunes store and downloading their game. This model tends to be costly because of the action guarantee associated with it.
4. Search CPC: In this type of mode, advertisers pay a fee for displaying their content shown on search engines. Sometimes the natural results and the paid search results can be easily differentiated by visitors due to the display structure. An advertiser pays only if a customer clicks on an advertisement. The cost associated is higher than content CPC.
CPM is useful for a company that is already established or is in the early stage wherein they have a huge market and want to ensure market visibility. CPC ensures that a visitor at least looks at an advertiser’s link and this would be useful for a gaming company if the visitor is browsing using a mobile device. However, in my opinion the most important of these models for app companies would be Cost per Action since this could ensure that a visitor clicks on a link and downloads the app. As the number of people that download the app increases, the app ranking rises on iTunes and Android Market Search, the number of reviews increase helping the app(a game maybe?) go viral. The higher the k-factor the more successful the adoption of this model would be.
Now how do you get your ad in there??
The two leading mobile ad networks(in my opinion) for iOS would be AdMob and iAd.
1. AdMob: According to AdMob’s website 1,107,009,356,188 global impressions have been served by AdMob. Google AdMob offers a variety of services like Text Ads, Ads with Offers, Click to download etc. They are very well established and these services gel very well with other services offered by Google like AdWords Reporting and Google Analytics. Google AdMob is doing very well and has worked with a number of big brands. One disadvantage Google has is that its competitor Apple owns the iOS platform which might cause problems in the future. But its Google!
2. iAd: iAd is owned by Apple which makes it a good choice for user acquisition on iOS. According to Apple, iAd has installed more than 15 billion applications, it’s audience has activated over 225 million iTunes accounts, spends, on average, 73 minutes per day using apps and engages with iAd ads for an average of 60 seconds per visit. Apple vs Google - Its tough to answer that one!
Both iAd and AdMob have had complains from users and no one network seems significantly better than the other. The spend would be evaluated by looking at the Clicks, Fill Rate, Impressions, eCPM (Effective Cost Per Thousand) and Revenue. In my opinion, the best way to advertise would be to implement “mobclix” or something similar wherein multiple ad networks could be used.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Status update: I did not get the job
A search on the internet can give you more information about a person than you ever intended to find out. There is a large pool of private information displayed extremely publicly on social networking websites waiting to be compromised. The question remains “How much is too much?” Does a person searching for a job at a firm really want the potential interviewer to know how much he "hates" working with his colleague or how he managed to get a holiday or how irritating he thinks his boss is, when on the day of the interview he has nothing but sugar coated stories to tell. While such a person may not deserve the job we cannot ignore the bigger picture. A number of “What if?” questions remain to answered, for example “What if he was overloaded with work that day and was really frustrated due to the lack of appreciation at work?” or “What if he was just sad that day because he was not granted leave and took out his frustration online?” Who has not felt the same at some point in their life? The only thing this person did wrong is post it on a networking website like Facebook forever blemishing his career! The interviewer with all his expertise is hired to find potential problems with a prospective employee and not be empathic towards him. An “I am so drunk and I have an interview tomorrow! Lol!” status on Facebook does not give out any positive vibes. It’s a miniscule event with a potentially disastrous outcome.
Although I personally believe LinkedIn to be a perfect channel for professional networking I do consider the online social networking trend of Facebook, Orkut, Twitter etcetera to be dangerous; like a time bomb of information waiting to explode destroying thousands of lives. In an interview the first impression counts and if the candidate’s first impression is his Facebook profile then he better be blessed. The trend of using social networking websites is most certainly going to have a negative impact on job seekers if they are not careful. It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words and likewise a few photos of a person on Facebook could be telling his whole story. While a student might innocently think that he deserves to go wild on his 21st birthday and takes much pride in putting these pictures up on his Facebook wall for his friends to see, the future employer might see these pictures to be that of a prospective candidate who seems like a brat with no self-control and dedication in life. As unfair as this may be this is what is going on as proved by Kevin Rawlinson’s “Drunken pirate” case study where a trainee teacher career was destroyed because she put up a picture of hers online dressed as a pirate with a cup in her hand and named it ‘Drunken Pirate’.
Technologies often come with a downside and the situation should be dealt with maturely. By practicing moderation and self-control most of the problems arising out of social networking can be avoided. For example, making our pictures private on Facebook so that only those we want to show our pictures can see them and restrain from making wild tweets about a part. An alternative could be just using an alias! I reiterate that LinkedIn is an excellent channel for professional communication and since it is being widely adopted by the industry it should be used efficiently by everyone in the job market by using it to post well-structured and focused profiles. Some of the most important qualities companies are looking at while hiring are technical skills, leadership, teamwork skills and innovative thinking. These skills can be shown in your LinkedIn profile. Companies spend a lot on hiring and they look for reliable, sincere and ethical individuals fitting their company profile and adding value to the company. While, I believe, networking sites like Facebook cannot help an individual in any way to portray these qualities, they certainly can harm his chances. Twitter can be used for social and technical awareness. A list of the people a person follows can give some idea about the interests about a person. For example, a person following and actively participating in an anti-global warming tweet might indicate awareness and ethical standards. Nothing is perfect and social networking is no exception to this rule but using it smartly can do more good than harm. Smart use of networking could soon help you tweet “I got my dream job! :) ”
A search on the internet can give you more information about a person than you ever intended to find out. There is a large pool of private information displayed extremely publicly on social networking websites waiting to be compromised. The question remains “How much is too much?” Does a person searching for a job at a firm really want the potential interviewer to know how much he "hates" working with his colleague or how he managed to get a holiday or how irritating he thinks his boss is, when on the day of the interview he has nothing but sugar coated stories to tell. While such a person may not deserve the job we cannot ignore the bigger picture. A number of “What if?” questions remain to answered, for example “What if he was overloaded with work that day and was really frustrated due to the lack of appreciation at work?” or “What if he was just sad that day because he was not granted leave and took out his frustration online?” Who has not felt the same at some point in their life? The only thing this person did wrong is post it on a networking website like Facebook forever blemishing his career! The interviewer with all his expertise is hired to find potential problems with a prospective employee and not be empathic towards him. An “I am so drunk and I have an interview tomorrow! Lol!” status on Facebook does not give out any positive vibes. It’s a miniscule event with a potentially disastrous outcome.
Although I personally believe LinkedIn to be a perfect channel for professional networking I do consider the online social networking trend of Facebook, Orkut, Twitter etcetera to be dangerous; like a time bomb of information waiting to explode destroying thousands of lives. In an interview the first impression counts and if the candidate’s first impression is his Facebook profile then he better be blessed. The trend of using social networking websites is most certainly going to have a negative impact on job seekers if they are not careful. It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words and likewise a few photos of a person on Facebook could be telling his whole story. While a student might innocently think that he deserves to go wild on his 21st birthday and takes much pride in putting these pictures up on his Facebook wall for his friends to see, the future employer might see these pictures to be that of a prospective candidate who seems like a brat with no self-control and dedication in life. As unfair as this may be this is what is going on as proved by Kevin Rawlinson’s “Drunken pirate” case study where a trainee teacher career was destroyed because she put up a picture of hers online dressed as a pirate with a cup in her hand and named it ‘Drunken Pirate’.
Technologies often come with a downside and the situation should be dealt with maturely. By practicing moderation and self-control most of the problems arising out of social networking can be avoided. For example, making our pictures private on Facebook so that only those we want to show our pictures can see them and restrain from making wild tweets about a part. An alternative could be just using an alias! I reiterate that LinkedIn is an excellent channel for professional communication and since it is being widely adopted by the industry it should be used efficiently by everyone in the job market by using it to post well-structured and focused profiles. Some of the most important qualities companies are looking at while hiring are technical skills, leadership, teamwork skills and innovative thinking. These skills can be shown in your LinkedIn profile. Companies spend a lot on hiring and they look for reliable, sincere and ethical individuals fitting their company profile and adding value to the company. While, I believe, networking sites like Facebook cannot help an individual in any way to portray these qualities, they certainly can harm his chances. Twitter can be used for social and technical awareness. A list of the people a person follows can give some idea about the interests about a person. For example, a person following and actively participating in an anti-global warming tweet might indicate awareness and ethical standards. Nothing is perfect and social networking is no exception to this rule but using it smartly can do more good than harm. Smart use of networking could soon help you tweet “I got my dream job! :) ”
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
My work!
What is the world coming to? Wheres the love and the compassion?
Here is something I have written and I hope people like it ! What is more important is that people understand it and relate to it. No I am not Ban Ki-moon or Shashi Tharoor but what I am is a true believer that there is good in each one of us and that each one of us cares.
Source: Waking Up, Religious Poems http://www.familyfriendpoems.com/spiritual/poetry.asp?poem=23364#ixzz0joqLfor7
Source: A Tribute To Parents, Mother Father Poems http://www.familyfriendpoems.com/family/poetry.asp?poem=23405#ixzz0jouku1uJ
Here is something I have written and I hope people like it ! What is more important is that people understand it and relate to it. No I am not Ban Ki-moon or Shashi Tharoor but what I am is a true believer that there is good in each one of us and that each one of us cares.
Waking Up
© Rajan Ladhwa
Dressed in blood praying to the Lord,
Killing for pleasure feeling no remorse,
Religions misinterpreted, the Books wrongly read,
Instead of spreading knowledge its hatred that is spread.
Humanity lost, the religions disrespected,
They say its the work of Lord,
Tell that to the ones whose dear ones are dead.
Inhuman to the core, the Lord cries,
His work has been misunderstood,
His message has been destroyed.
Love is the religion of man,
There is no greater religion then love.
Its peace and forgiveness losing hope,
With battles fought the holocaust is gore.
Our forefathers fought for peace, for freedom,
Crying in their graves they feel helpless,
Their children don't respect their freedom,
Cause hatred has filled their blood.
Destroying the world there is no remorse,
When was the last time, time was spent in appreciation,
Appreciation of what we have, what God has given us,
The seven colored wonder, the blooming flowers,
The flowing rivers, the vastness of the oceans.
The paradise, it is being lost,
The Lords dream is being lost.
He quietly looks down from the heavens above,
With tears in his eyes his children killing each other.
Killing for pleasure feeling no remorse,
Religions misinterpreted, the Books wrongly read,
Instead of spreading knowledge its hatred that is spread.
Humanity lost, the religions disrespected,
They say its the work of Lord,
Tell that to the ones whose dear ones are dead.
Inhuman to the core, the Lord cries,
His work has been misunderstood,
His message has been destroyed.
Love is the religion of man,
There is no greater religion then love.
Its peace and forgiveness losing hope,
With battles fought the holocaust is gore.
Our forefathers fought for peace, for freedom,
Crying in their graves they feel helpless,
Their children don't respect their freedom,
Cause hatred has filled their blood.
Destroying the world there is no remorse,
When was the last time, time was spent in appreciation,
Appreciation of what we have, what God has given us,
The seven colored wonder, the blooming flowers,
The flowing rivers, the vastness of the oceans.
The paradise, it is being lost,
The Lords dream is being lost.
He quietly looks down from the heavens above,
With tears in his eyes his children killing each other.
Source: Waking Up, Religious Poems http://www.familyfriendpoems.com/spiritual/poetry.asp?poem=23364#ixzz0joqLfor7
A Tribute To Parents
© Rajan Ladhwa
There was a time when you held my hand,
You gave me strength to stand.
When I would cry and be up all night,
You would cuddle me and spend sleepless nights,
And the next when I slept all day,
You tried hard to buy me toys.
So I thank you mama, and I thank you papa,
For giving me this beautiful life.
I have been wrong and I have been lost,
But you have stood by me and shown me the path.
I have asked you for things, those which I need not,
You gave them all to me just see me smile.
Oceans so deep, mountains so high, cannot express my feelings for you.
You have been my mentor; you have made me what I am.
You gave me strength to stand.
When I would cry and be up all night,
You would cuddle me and spend sleepless nights,
And the next when I slept all day,
You tried hard to buy me toys.
So I thank you mama, and I thank you papa,
For giving me this beautiful life.
I have been wrong and I have been lost,
But you have stood by me and shown me the path.
I have asked you for things, those which I need not,
You gave them all to me just see me smile.
Oceans so deep, mountains so high, cannot express my feelings for you.
You have been my mentor; you have made me what I am.
Source: A Tribute To Parents, Mother Father Poems http://www.familyfriendpoems.com/family/poetry.asp?poem=23405#ixzz0jouku1uJ
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